Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 6, 2024: Jobs Report May Be Close Enough to Expectations
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.54% today, a decrease of 0.11% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.64%, down by 0.15%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.8%, having dropped by 0.18. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.06%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
In brief
Absent something cataclysmic, this morning's jobs report will likely dominate changes in mortgage rates today. And the news is mixed.
The number of new jobs and the increase in average hourly earnings came in a bit higher than expected. And that would normally push mortgage rates up. But, in the 20 minutes following publication, markets barely responded to the news.
That doesn't mean they won't react later. But it's an encouraging early sign. Read on for the report's key data.
The future
Experts continue to have modest expectations for mortgage rates in 2025. Most believe they will fall, but only by a little.
Yesterday, Fannie Mae published its latest Home Price Expectations Survey. That's based on the opinions of 100 housing experts "across the industry and academia" who are polled regularly.
In the section on mortgage rates, those experts' average forecasts for 2025 put the mean mortgage rate that year at 6.3%. Yes, that's below the current average rate, which Freddie Mac's weekly snapshot put at 6.69% yesterday.
But we're no longer looking at the game-changing sorts of falls we were hoping for several months ago. As U.S. News put it in an e-newsletter yesterday, "Homebuyers who are waiting for mortgage rates to fall to some magic number may want to rethink that strategy – or at least be prepared to wait it out for several more months or years."
We suspect mortgage rates will flatline for years unless there is a recession in the meantime, which should pull them lower. Even then, it would likely take a deep and long downturn to see us revisiting the uberlow rates we enjoyed earlier in the decade.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.54% | 6.58% | -0.11% | -0.49% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.7% | -0.15% | -0.49% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 6.64% | -0.18% | -0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.97% | -0.18% | -0.55% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.77% | 5.91% | -0.02% | -0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.06% | 7.08% | -0.03% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.49% | 6.53% | -0.09% | -0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.64% | 6.68% | -0.1% | -0.36% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.64% | 5.7% | -0.16% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 6.63% | -0.16% | -0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.83% | 5.98% | -0.18% | -0.55% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.61% | 6.64% | -0.02% | -0.03% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Here's what markets were expecting from the jobs report overnight, according to MarketWatch, with today's actual numbers in bold:
- Nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created during the month) — Actual 227,000. Markets expected 214,000, way up from October's 12,000, which was a freakish outlier owing to hurricanes and strikes.
- Unemployment rate — Actual 4.2%. Markets expected 4.2%, up from October's 4.1%.
- Hourly wages — Actual 0.4%. Markets expected a 0.3% increase, down from October's 0.4%.
You can see that the data mostly exceeded expectations with only the unemployment rate coming in on forecast. That would typically push mortgage rates higher. However, movements in markets and mortgage rates were muted during the first 20 minutes after publication. So, fingers crossed that lasts.
Later today
We're also due a December consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Eastern. Markets are expecting that to improve to 73.0 from 71.8 in November. Later this afternoon, we should also get the consumer credit report for October. That's expected to shoot up to $10 billion from $6 billion. And, finally, speeches from four senior Fed officials are on today's calendar.
However, these relatively minor things are usually overshadowed by blockbuster reports such as today's jobs data.
Next week
