Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 4, 2024: Foreign Crises and Two Economic Reports Stand Between Us and Lower Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.74% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.82%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.03%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.2%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
In brief
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a speaking engagement at lunchtime. And markets will be hanging on his every word, hoping he'll spell out how likely a cut to general interest rates is two weeks today.
The Fed does not directly set mortgage rates. But it does influence the bond market that determines them.
So, the Fed's next rate announcement, due Dec. 18, will be crucial to mortgage rates. And three things are especially likely to affect the Fed's decision to cut or hold steady general interest rates.
Volatility drivers
Two of them are vitally important economic reports: the jobs report and the consumer price index (CPI). The first (and arguably more important) lands on Friday and the CPI is due next Wednesday, Dec. 11.
The third possible driver of changing mortgage rates is foreign crises that might affect the global economy. Today, the French government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly (parliament).
"Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit," says Reuters.
Meanwhile, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces impeachment, reports The Guardian. That follows his implementation yesterday of martial law across the country, a decision he was soon forced to walk back — to the relief of the U.S. government, which has 30,000 troops stationed in the country.
France is the seventh largest economy in the world and South Korea the 14th. So, these potentially destabilizing events aren't something that markets are likely to ignore.
And, of course, there are currently plenty of other strategically important flashpoints that could flare up, most obviously in the Middle East and Ukraine.
All this, on top of post-election uncertainty, may well generate volatility in markets and mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | +0.06% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.82% | 5.88% | +0.04% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.03% | 6.87% | +0.06% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.02% | 6.18% | +0.06% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.99% | 6.13% | +0.08% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.2% | 7.22% | +0.04% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.67% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.87% | +0.15% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.81% | 5.87% | +0.16% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.01% | 6.84% | +0.06% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.03% | 6.18% | +0.06% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.67% | -0.05% | +0% |
Coming up
We talked above about two economic reports influencing the Fed and mortgage rates. Of course, there are plenty of other such reports that could move mortgage rates in the meantime.
But those mostly pass by unnoticed. And those that are on markets' radar tend to have only a limited and temporary impact.
Mortgage rates today
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speaking engagement probably has the greatest potential to affect mortgage rates today. But only if he says something that changes investors' take on the likelihood of a December cut to general interest rates. Markets treat Powell's words with the reverence the ancient Greeks used to reserve for the oracle at Delphi.
Today's main economic report is the ADP employment report, which covers private-sector payrolls in November. This is always a wait-and-see publication. Sometimes, markets see it as a bellwether for the much more important jobs report, due Friday. And sometimes they ignore it.
Markets are still expecting the report to show 163,000 new jobs created in November, way down from October's 233,000. For mortgage rates to fall, we'd like to see a number below 163,000.
Other reports today include two November purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the services sector. Markets expect the one from S&P Global to hold steady at 57.0. But they think the one from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) might dip slightly to 55.6 from 56.0 in October.
Meanwhile, October's factory orders, also due today, are expected to shrink more slowly than in September: by -0.2% rather than -0.5%.
As always, mortgage rates tend to fall on worse-than-expected economic news.
Tomorrow and beyond
Besides Powell's Q&A session today, the Fed is fielding one or more speakers every day this week. And Wall Street will be listening for hints about future rate cuts.
Over the weekend, the Fed will go into its usual "purdah" (a self-imposed silence) until its Dec. 18 meeting. This is supposed to minimize speculation in markets ahead of its rate decision. Some hope.
