Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 2, 2024: It's jobs week again!
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.73% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.8%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.96%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.18%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
In brief
We're due four employment-related economic reports this week, culminating in the all-important jobs report on Friday. The first, landing tomorrow, is October's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS).
Also this week, we have four purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs), two for each of the services and manufacturing sectors. These can be helpful because they measure activity in organizations' purchasing departments, which can be a good indicator of future economic activity.
There are also some secondary reports this week, including construction spending and consumer sentiment.
All these data will be viewed through the prism of how they might affect the next announcement by the Federal Reserve on general interest rates. That's due on Dec. 18.
The better shape the economy seems to be in, the less likely the Fed is to cut rates. The Fed is known to focus especially closely on employment when deciding rate changes. So, this could be an important week.
Overnight, the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a small, quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut at 61.7% against 38.3% for no change.
A month ago, those numbers were 82.7% vs. 17.3% respectively. So expectations have already been shifting.
Although mortgage rates aren't directly tied to Fed decisions on general rates, the central bank wields huge influence over the bond market that largely determines mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.77% | +0.03% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.8% | 5.87% | +0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 6.8% | -0.03% | -0.37% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.99% | 6.14% | -0.01% | -0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.99% | 6.14% | +0.12% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.18% | 7.2% | +0.03% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.59% | 6.62% | +0% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.77% | +0.06% | -0.24% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.72% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 6.77% | -0.03% | -0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.98% | 6.14% | -0.01% | -0.37% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.68% | 6.75% | +0.05% | -0.18% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
This morning, we're due the first two PMIs mentioned above. They both cover the manufacturing sector during November
Markets are expecting the one from S&P Global to remain unchanged since October. But they think the one from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) might improve to 47.5% from 46.5%. If you'd like lower mortgage rates, you'd rather it didn't.
Also on this morning's calendar is construction spending for October. Markets are expecting that to have grown a little faster: by 0.2% from 0.1% in September.
Tomorrow
The October JOLTS report (see above) is due tomorrow morning. Markets are expecting a small increase in the number of job openings, up to 7.6 million compared with September's 7.4 million. That would be good for mortgage rates because it suggests an easing in the labor market.
Market expectations are crucial to mortgage rates because investors typically trade ahead of reports based on them. So, good or bad news is fine, providing it's expected. It's when there's a gap between actual figures and expectations that mortgage rates tend to move.
